December 7, 2022

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The far right has won a historic victory in Israel and could dictate the course of the new Netanyahu government

Even though it was the party of the former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have taken Most seats in the election held last Tuesday, 1st M IsraelAccording to preliminary results, The big winners were the far-right and ultra-conservative parties. With a historic conclusion, The Religious Zionism It has to win 14 seats in Parliament. More than double what he won in previous elections, making him a major force in the new Netanyahu government.

With nearly 88% of the votes counted, Netanyahu’s bloc is headed for a simple majority, although the final results will not be known until Friday the 4th. Until next Wednesday 2nd, the LikudThe former prime minister’s party has 32 seats KnessetThe Israeli parliament, followed by the center-right party of the current prime minister Yair Labitoh Yesh Atidicom 24.

was in third place Religious Zionism, led by extremist Itamar Ben-Givir, with 14 places for the first time in history. Above the party National unityFormer Prime Minister and Defense Minister, Benny Gantz, expected to win 12 seats, has already announced that it will form opposition parties. Finally, forming a bloc with Likud and who should be in government: Shaws11 with, and United Torah JudaismCom 8.

Likud Party leader Binyamin Netanyahu walks through his party headquarters during Israel’s general election in Jerusalem. Photo: Ronen Swolun/Reuters

With this preliminary result, Netanyahu’s coalition will win 65 of the 120 seats in parliament., slightly above the required 61. But the results can still change at the end of the count, especially if they have to be counted. Votes from Arab regions could bring Meretz or Balat to the Knesset – Currently both Arab parties are below the required minimum of 4 seats.

However, this change will not be enough to change the reality that Netanyahu will lead the new government or reduce the far right as a third force. But that could leave the Likud coalition with an even tighter minority, effectively holding Netanyahu hostage to the extremists..

In addition to the number of seats for his coalition, Netanyahu has Ben-Givir to thank for an increase in voter turnout in these elections, which was 6% higher than 19 months earlier and the highest since 1999. According to analyzes by the Israeli press, some of the anti-Netanyahu votes in the 2019 elections were able to be transferred to the radical pro-Netanyahu bloc.

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“If Netanyahu really has room to form a coalition government, he owes it to Ben-Khir — and the far-right leader has a long list of demands. As well as the two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, which will return from the opposition with a vengeance. Haaretz.

Although Netanyahu adopted a conciliatory tone after the exit decisionsHe has promised to create a “national government that cares for all” and respect all citizens, and analysts say he will have to adopt tough policies to keep his coalition parties united. And to prevent the dissolution of Parliament.

Although he has been Israel’s leader for 12 consecutive years, this new Netanyahu government will be very different from previous governments, especially as it may have to cede ministries to political forces that until then had little representation in parliament.

“The Orthodox prefer ministries related to Israel’s domestic issues, so, for example, the Ministry of Interior, the Ministry of Education, and far-right parties will be interested in these ministries and other portfolios related to religious aspects. The State of Israel’s PhD in International Relations and the Brazil-Israel Institute (IBI) reinforce the Orthodox view of Judaism. ) explains coordinator Professor Karina Calandrin. Estado.

Supporters of Itamar Ben-Givrin react after the announcement of exit polls for Israel's general election at the party's headquarters in Jerusalem on November 1, 2022.
Supporters of Itamar Ben-Givrin react after the announcement of exit polls for Israel’s general election at the party’s headquarters in Jerusalem on November 1, 2022. Photo: Corinna Kern/Reuters

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In the daily lives of Israelis, this new system of government should affect advances already made by previous administrations, including Netanyahu’s own, on long-distance marriages, LGBT agendas, and the historic Abraham Accords with Arab countries. Yair Lapid’s signal to the UN General Assembly about the two-state solution alsoConsidering the conflict with Palestineshould be rejected.

“This will be very detrimental to the agreements already established and the potential future agreements being outlined (Like Lebanon), depends on the relevance of these extreme rightists within the government,” adds the professor.

However, the big question is how long this new government will last. That’s the question Israelis are asking themselves after voting for the fifth time in three years. The previous government was dissolved after the coalition led by Naphtali Bennett And “Bibi” was created to defeat Netanyahu They clashed with the diversity of the internal organization, which included centre, right, left, Arab and labor parties.

Now, Netanyahu will have to deal with an even more difficult-to-manage diversity, as he himself has disagreements with the far right and the Orthodox. Also, if the predictions are confirmed and your alliance has 61 to 63 seats, your alliance will be very weak and will crumble if two or three representatives migrate.

Netanyahu has become a controversial figure, with Israeli policy often a point of contention between Bibi’s supporters and opponents, with analysts betting the government won’t last four years. “The opposition will be very strict with this government, which could create very serious political crises,” points out Karina Calandrin.

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Israel's former Prime Minister and leader of the Likud Binyamin Netanyahu with his wife Sarah
Israel’s former Prime Minister and leader of the Likud Binyamin Netanyahu with his wife Sarah Photo: Menahem Gahana/AFP

“Furthermore, internationally we see how the far-right is mired in controversy and becomes a very unstable government. And corruption cases against Netanyahu are ongoing in court.

Added to all this is the risk that Bibi will become a “victim of his own demon,” as pointed out by some Israeli newspapers, because he gave space to nationalists to flourish within Israel. Now, as a far-right becomes a consolidated force in politics, Binyamin Netanyahu may become “obsolete.”

“With the advance of the extreme right, he will also be cut as a person, because neither Likud nor he shares these values ​​of the extreme right from an ideological point of view. The ultra-conservatives have no aspirations to be prime minister, but the extreme right wants it, he should be careful,” the professor concludes./NYT and with information from Renato Vasconcelos

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